There's been a flurry of news over the past month about Blu-Ray and HD-DVD backers getting together to avoid a format war for the next generation of high definition discs. I've avoided covering each step on the drama, so here's a quick recap of the posturing between the two camps:
- "Hey, we're new here at Sony, and going proprietary hasn't worked out so well in the past few years. Let's work this BD/HD-DVD thing out"
- "OK"
- "Um, we can't,"
- "No, really, we're still trying,"
- "Look! HD-DVD can do 45GB per disc, too!"
- "A single format doesn't look likely - the technologies don't mesh well."
- "...but we're getting our CEOs involved to hash out licensing revenue share possibilities"
- "Nope, not looking likely..."
To this, Bill Hunt over at The Digital Bits took in a bit of E3 hype and concluded that Blu-Ray has already won (5/17/05 "Early Post"), based on the potential PS3 installed base:
I'm going to go out in a limb right now and post something that some of you may consider a bit controversial. But I think the writing is on the wall. I think the format war is over before it's even begun, and the Toshiba/HD-DVD camp is toast.
Why? You know how many PlayStation 2 systems Sony's sold since that unit's launch? 87 million. Let me repeat that. 87 million. 1.5 million were sold in the PS2's first month of availability alone.
I already covered the PS3 angle back in March noting that with PS3 support, Blu-Ray should be able to solve the chicken and egg problem better than HD-DVD to get an installed base. Of course, that assumes that Sony prices the unit within reach of the masses. Despite lots of details coming out of the PS3 launch this week, pricing hasn't been announced, so Sony could theoretically decide to sell the PS3 at $999 and kill the market. They won't do that, but console pricing will have an outsized impact here.
-avi
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